Altimmune and Hims are both playing in one of the most explosive medical markets of this decade. The weight loss drug arms race has gone full tilt, and while Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have soaked up the spotlight with GLP1 juggernauts like Wegovy and Zepbound, smaller names like ALT are clawing at the edges for a piece of the action.
Altimmune has a GLP1-glucagon dual agonist called pemvidutide, and it just cleared a fast track designation from the FDA. That puts them in a special lane. The Phase 2 data, despite the hit piece headlines, actually showed strong weight loss at higher doses. The FUD came from early reports focusing on weaker results from two lower dose arms, which made headlines but missed the meat of the story. Management clearly botched the optics.
But if you zoom out, the drug could be a legit player. Pemvidutide is now in a Phase 3 trial for obesity and MASH, which is a version of fatty liver disease. The thing is, this market is enormous. Goldman Sachs projects the global obesity drug market could hit $100 billion annually by 2030. Even a slice of that would be life-changing for a microcap like ALT.
What’s the problem? Management. The science may be real, but the business side has been a circus. They have been floating the idea of partnerships and buyouts for over two years now, and nothing has landed. It makes people question how hard they are actually trying. They had strong momentum after the initial Phase 2 data, but instead of capitalizing on it with media, outreach, and partnerships, they fumbled and faded.
On the other side of this equation is Hims. It is in a much better position operationally. Hims is not in the GLP1 game directly yet, but they are clearly watching it closely. Their management has a solid track record of finding what the market wants and scaling it through slick DTC platforms. They started with hair and ED, then moved to mental health, and now they are teasing weight loss drugs. They recently got hit when Novo Nordisk clamped down on semaglutide copycat prescriptions from compounders, but that also blew the door wide open for players like Hims to step in with licensed alternatives.
A merger or exclusive partnership between ALT and Hims would make perfect sense. Hims has the audience and delivery engine, ALT has the drug and FDA pathway. If management at ALT was sharper, this would have already been on the table. But it is still early in the race. Hims is one of the few brands that could take pemvidutide and sell it like hotcakes if the data holds.
Right now, ALT trades around $7 with a market cap under $400 million. If a big pharma player wants their GLP1 asset, the floor for a buyout could start at $1 billion. That would be a monster win for current holders, but it requires clinical success, regulatory green lights, and someone actually showing up to close a deal.
Social media chatter has been building around both names. ALT is being discussed in the context of GLP1 underdogs, and Hims is trending again after its latest earnings call hinted at growth into metabolic health. These two names are now sitting on different branches of the same tree. If pemvidutide makes it through Phase 3 and gets approval, distribution will be everything. And Hims might just be the channel that turns this science project into revenue.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice