The S&P 500 just triggered its third straight July RSI warning. In 2023, we saw RSI hit 75 before a 6% pullback. In 2024, RSI crossed 75 again—followed by a 10% drop. Now, it’s July 2025 and we’re staring at another 75+ reading. This isn’t some vague signal. This is speed flashing on the dashboard.
Today, $SPX closed at 6,229.98. That’s a 49-point drop on volume north of 2.7 billion shares. The RSI settled at 75.57. That puts us right back into the same heat zone where traders pulled the plug twice before. The index opened at 6,259.04, dipped to 6,201.00, and bounced late. That bounce didn’t change the underlying pressure. The last time RSI went this high, the floor gave out in a matter of days.
The 3-month rally has been excessive. The index is up 228.57% over that window, even though the 1-year change is negative. That means all the gains are stacked into a recent surge. RSI tracks speed, not strength. And the speed has been blistering. If history repeats, this setup leads to selling.
The traders who watch RSI religiously have already started trimming. They’ve seen this pattern play out before. Overbought technicals don’t mean panic. They mean prepare. $SPX was trading at 4,187 when RSI hit 76 in July 2023. It dropped to 3,930 in 2 weeks. In 2024, the run went even harder—and the drop came faster.
If you’re looking at this from a tactical point of view, RSI 75 isn’t just a number. It’s a trigger. The S&P 500 is stretched. The question is whether it snaps, stalls, or gets pinned. No guarantees. But history isn’t vague. History printed 6% and 10% drops the last two times this level appeared.
Sources:
https://wallstreetnumbers.com/indexes/spx/rsi
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$SPX/technical-analysis
https://aiolux.com/reports/analytics-technical-indicators?symbol=SPX&tab_name=rsi