Sweetgreen (NYSE: SG) is trading near $13.35 in mid-July 2025, down more than 56% year-to-date. The selloff has been steep, and the pressure is coming from multiple directions. Urban foot traffic remains weak. Same-store sales at older locations are falling by double digits. Analysts are pulling back. Options traders are bracing for more downside.
TD Cowen downgraded the stock to “Hold” on July 1 and cut its price target from $25 to $15. JPMorgan dropped its target to $16. Morgan Stanley lowered theirs to $17. The average analyst target now sits near $21, down from $27 just three months ago. Eight of the fourteen firms covering SG still rate it a “Buy,” but sentiment is shifting.
Q1 earnings showed revenue of $166.3 million, up 5.3% from last year. EPS came in at -$0.21, matching expectations. Net margin was -13.04%. ROE sits at -5.7%. ROA is -2.96%. The company is growing revenue but still losing money. Profitability remains elusive.
Sweetgreen’s Infinite Kitchen rollout hasn’t yet offset the sales slump. Stores open four years or more are seeing sharp declines. The return-to-office trend has plateaued. Competition from CAVA and Chipotle is intensifying. Urban exposure is now a liability.
Options activity shows rising bearish sentiment. On July 1, put volume hit 5,057 contracts—six times the intraday average. The most active strike was January 2026 $10. Traders are positioning for more downside.
Still, there’s institutional support. Wellington Management, Invesco, and Durable Capital Partners all increased stakes in Q1. Director Clifford Burrows bought 19,200 shares in May. Wells Fargo maintains an “Overweight” rating and sees fundamentals improving in the second half of 2025.
Sweetgreen’s market cap is $1.6 billion. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.76. That gives it some flexibility. Analysts expect FY25 revenue of $770.8 million and FY26 revenue of $924.6 million. EPS is forecast to improve from -$0.65 to -$0.48 next year.
Bottom line: Sweetgreen is a high-beta recovery play. If urban foot traffic rebounds and Infinite Kitchen gains traction, the upside could be sharp. But until profitability improves and same-store sales stabilize, the risk remains elevated.
Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2025-07-01/stock-movers-tesla-sweetgreen-nike-podcast
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/sg/forecast/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SG/news/