The market cracked on July 15. The S&P 500 closed at 6,243.76, down 0.40%, with ten of eleven sectors bleeding. The Dow dropped 437 points to 38,741.92. The Russell 2000 got hit hardest, falling 1.99% to 2,205.63. Nasdaq printed a fresh record at 20,677.80, up 0.18%, but internals were weak. The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 5.027%, its highest close since October 2023. That level has capped upside for two decades. Every breach has triggered a bond rally and equity stress. Traders dropped $10 million on CME options betting it’ll hit 5.3% by late August.
SPY closed at $622.14, down 0.43%. Volume hit 74.3 million shares, well above average. Put flow surged on the $505, $545, and $465 strikes expiring August 22. Combined open interest topped 300,000 contracts. Traders are bracing for a pullback. TLT volume jumped 65%. Long duration is catching a bid.
Palantir closed at $148.58, down 0.38%. RSI sits at 79.2. The stock trades at a P/E of 651.3. Market cap hit $350.6 billion. The AIP platform crossed a $1 billion run rate, but valuation is stretched. Bull case leans on defense contracts and AI stack dominance. Bear case is simple—priced for perfection, no margin for error. Put flow is active from 144–149, with peak open interest at 144 and 148. Hedge is justified if you’re long into earnings or macro risk.
Coinbase dropped 1.52% to $388.02. Bitcoin closed at $117,937.28, down 1.06%. COIN trades at 73.4 P/E, with a market cap near $98.8 billion. Bull case rides on ETF flows and custody deals. Bear case is tied to fee compression and regulatory heat. Calendar put spreads targeting $350 strike show 400%+ upside. Hedge is compelling if you expect crypto weakness.
MicroStrategy fell 1.93% to $442.31. The company holds 214,400 BTC, worth $13.9 billion. That’s the entire thesis. No hedge. No diversification. If Bitcoin drops, MSTR follows. Bull case is leverage. Bear case is fragility. Put volume is heavy at 437.5 strike, with 5,389 contracts open. Hedge is expensive but warranted if you’re exposed to BTC volatility.
Nvidia rallied 4.04% to $170.70, hitting a fresh all-time high. RSI clocked 82.4. Volume hit 230.6 million shares, well above average. Market cap crossed $4.16 trillion. Options are pricing in a 12% move. Bull case leans on resumed China chip sales and AI dominance. Bear case is valuation and crowding. Put skew is widening. Hedge is reasonable if macro or earnings risk looms.
Bullish case:
- Nvidia’s China pipeline reopening
- Palantir’s AIP hitting $1 billion run rate
- Coinbase riding Bitcoin’s strength
- MicroStrategy leveraged to BTC upside
- SPY earnings beat rate at 77%
Bearish case:
- Wells Fargo tapped $196 billion in emergency liquidity
- Nvidia overbought on every metric
- PLTR trades at 651 P/E
- COIN fee pressure rising
- SPY put volume exploding
NOTE: This is not financial advice. Please conduct your own due diligence.
Sources
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202507158277/sp-500-falls-040-to-624376-data-talk