Carvana stock is trading at $343.67 as of July 15, 2025. That’s a 152.12% gain over the past year and 68.83% year-to-date. The company’s market cap now sits at $73.52 billion. The rally has been relentless, and the valuation is pushing into nosebleed territory. The question is whether this is momentum or mania.
The bullish case starts with retail volume. Carvana posted a 34% year-over-year jump in retail units sold in Q3, driving a 32% revenue surge. The company locked in a $4 billion auto loan sale agreement with Ally Financial, giving it fresh liquidity and balance sheet flexibility. Analysts are chasing the tape. JPMorgan raised its target to $350. JMP Securities went to $440. Citigroup and Stephens lifted targets above $375. The consensus target is $302.83, with the top end at $440.
Carvana’s lending arm is gaining traction. The company’s current ratio is 3.25, showing solid liquidity. Revenue grew 12.21% over the last twelve months. Citi upgraded the stock to Buy, citing operational efficiency and retail momentum. RBC and BofA reiterated bullish calls. The platform’s ability to scale inventory and meet demand is improving. The Piotroski Score is a perfect 9.
Now the bearish setup. CVNA trades at 214 times forward earnings. The PEG ratio is above 4. Short interest is 10.3% of float, with 12.16 million shares sold short. Borrow fees are low, but the setup is there. The stock has had 48 moves greater than 5% in the past year. Volatility is baked in. The used car market remains fragile. Macro headwinds are real. And the company still carries legacy debt from its 2022 restructuring.
The stock is up 7.67% in the past month and trades near its 52-week high of $357.32. It’s outperforming every peer in the auto retail space. But fundamentals haven’t changed that much. The rally is narrative-driven. The short case hinges on valuation, debt, and macro risk. The long case rides on liquidity, lending economics, and analyst momentum.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
Sources:
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/CVNA/chart/