VKTX is not some obscure ticker anymore. Viking Therapeutics is sitting on what could be the most undervalued metabolic pipeline in biotech right now. The company’s market cap is $3.45 billion. That’s tiny compared to the size of the obesity market it’s targeting. The real story here is VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist being developed in both injectable and oral forms. The subcutaneous version is already in Phase 3. The oral version is wrapping up Phase 2, with data expected between late July and early September. That’s the binary event. If the data hits, the valuation gap closes fast.
VK2735 works through the same mechanism as Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, which powers Mounjaro and Zepbound. Those drugs are already pulling billions in revenue. Viking’s candidate showed 14.7% weight loss in Phase 2 with tolerability matching placebo. That’s unheard of. Most GLP-1 drugs have dropout rates 5 to 10 points higher than placebo. Viking’s oral version could be the first pill to match injectable efficacy without the side effects. That’s not just market share. That’s market expansion.
The obesity market was $16 billion in 2024. Goldman Sachs projects $95 billion by 2030. Morgan Stanley and BMO peg it closer to $150 billion. Leerink goes even higher. Lilly is expected to capture under 50%. Novo Nordisk is losing ground. Pfizer dropped out. Viking is one of the only small caps left with a viable candidate. Amgen and Metsera are in the mix, but Viking’s data is cleaner. Metsera’s pipeline is thinner. Viking is being priced like it’s irrelevant. It’s not.
Let’s run the numbers. Base case: VK2735 gets approved by 2028, pulls $5 billion annually. At a 4x revenue multiple, that’s a $20 billion valuation. That’s $180 per share. Bull case: Viking grabs 15 to 20% of the market, pulls $10 to $15 billion. That’s $360 to $540 per share. Buyout case: $100 to $200 per share depending on the acquirer. Hopium case: oral and injectable dominate, $30 to $60 billion revenue, $1500 to $2500 per share. That’s fantasy, but it’s not impossible.
Bear case? Bad data or safety issues. That’s biotech. If VK2735 fails, the stock could drop to $10. But the odds are low. Phase 2 data was strong. Phase 3 is underway. Institutional money is already moving in. Balyasny, Citadel, Susquehanna, Jane Street—over $150 million in long positions. H.C. Wainwright just reiterated a $102 price target. The stock closed at $30.19 on July 9, up 9.74% on the day. Volume is rising. Sentiment is shifting.
VKTX isn’t a meme. It’s a real biotech with real data in a real market. The oral readout is coming. The Phase 3 trial is live. The obesity TAM is exploding. And Viking is still trading like it’s irrelevant. That won’t last.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
Sources:
https://www.timothysykes.com/news/viking-therapeutics-inc-vktx-news-2025_07_08/
https://www.aol.com/why-think-viking-therapeutics-asymmetric-083000644.html
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/07/03/2-beaten-down-stocks-with-massive-upside-potential/