AppLovin didn’t launch a new platform. Didn’t buy a rival. Didn’t pivot. It just rerouted investor attention to Axon 2 and watched the multiple go vertical.
“AppLovin shares have climbed more than 500% over the past year, driven by investor excitement around its Axon 2 ad engine and margin expansion.” https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/technicals/25/08/46870276/apple-stock-performance-app-store-revenue-august-seasonality
Revenue hit $5.1B. That’s triple since 2021. The multiple now sits at 25x forward. “AppLovin trades at 25x forward revenue, a level that implies sustained hypergrowth and flawless execution.” https://seekingalpha.com/article/4640201-applovin-stock-q2-earnings-preview-valuation-concerns
Q2 profit: $576M. Margins near 39%. EPS up 159%. Stock dropped 5% after earnings. No follow-through. https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/08/01/why-applovin-stock-dropped-after-q2-earnings/
“AppLovin’s dependence on Apple and Google for distribution and data access remains a key vulnerability, especially as privacy rules evolve.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/decoding-applovin-corp-app-strategic-050336084.html
Axon 2’s performance curve hasn’t been tested. Apple’s next privacy update could cut signal in half. The 500% rally sits on a 13% revenue bump. That gap hasn’t been explained.
The chart’s vertical. The moat’s assumed. The risk’s ignored.
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