ASML just pulled the rug. On July 16, 2025, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant slashed its Q3 revenue forecast and refused to confirm its 2026 growth target. The stock cratered 11% in a single session, wiping out $30 billion in market value. That’s not a dip. That’s a reset. The company beat Q2 earnings expectations with €7.7 billion in net sales and €2.29 billion in profit, but the forward guidance missed. ASML now expects Q3 revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, below the €8.3 billion consensus. Margin compression is already showing. The market didn’t blink. It panicked.
CEO Christophe Fouquet said the fundamentals of AI customers “remain strong,” but added that macro and geopolitical uncertainty makes 2026 growth “impossible to confirm.” That’s the line. No commitment. No clarity. Just a warning. ASML had previously guided for €30 billion to €35 billion in 2025 sales. Now it’s narrowing that to the lower end. The 2026 outlook is off the table. That’s not a rounding error. That’s a signal.
ASML builds the machines that make the chips. Extreme ultraviolet lithography tools. High NA systems. Each unit costs over $400 million. They’re the backbone of advanced semiconductors. Nvidia, Intel, TSMC, Samsung, they all depend on ASML. If ASML misses, the supply chain shakes. The company shipped one High NA tool in Q2. That’s progress, but not velocity.
The AI trade is built on infrastructure. Chips, fabs, tools. If the toolmaker is pulling back, the hype needs a reality check. Nvidia and AMD rallied on export policy relief. ASML collapsed on guidance. That divergence matters. Token pumps and GPU speculation don’t build chips. ASML does. And it’s flashing yellow.
Tariff pressure is part of the story. Trump’s July 13 announcement confirmed 30% tariffs on EU imports starting August 1. Semiconductors are currently exempt, but insiders say chips and pharma are next. ASML’s exposure to China is already restricted. Now the U.S. is tightening. That’s not noise. That’s policy.
Technical traders flagged the breakdown. ASML fell through its rising wedge pattern on heavy volume. Support at $695 is in play. Resistance sits near $775. The stock closed at $754, down 8.3% on the day. RSI dropped below neutral. Momentum is fading. The dragonfly doji on the daily chart hints at a bounce, but the fundamentals don’t support it.
The AI token crowd keeps chanting “infrastructure is bullish.” But the infrastructure just missed. The company that builds the machines just pulled guidance. That’s not bullish. That’s caution.
Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-asml-holdings-fell-11-183833120.html