Bubble talk resurfaces but no one maps the fallout

S&P 500 hit 6,345 in July. That number feels thin. A 50% drop lands it near 3,173. Still above 2019. Doesn’t matter. No one’s hedged for that kind of altitude loss.

Fairlead sees more selling. No timeline. Just “likely.” MACD’s broken. Stochastics too. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sell-signal-correction-technical-analysis-sp500-2025-1

Fed’s July report dropped “resilient system.” That phrase was standard. Now it’s gone. No comment. No footnote.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/cybersecurity-report-202507.pdf

Trump’s tariff rollout hit 68 countries. Rates up to 50%. Canada’s spike blamed on fentanyl.

CBS confirmed the expansion. “Trump formally announced higher tariffs against more than 60 trading partners.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-trade-deals-tariffis-deadline/

Yale Budget Lab says households could take a $2,700 hit in 2025. That’s before retaliation. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-s-tariff-deadline-is-august-1-here-s-what-could-immediately-cost-more-from-food-to-electronics/ar-AA1JeHrx

California wholesale produce costs jumped 7.4% in early August. Distributors blame Latin American tariff recalculations. Retail prices haven’t moved. Yet. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-tariffs-california-food-prices-2055394

No one’s modeling the combo. Valuation collapse plus tariff inflation. Everyone’s siloed. Everyone’s pretending it’s manageable.


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