China’s stimulus rally fades. Hang Seng reverses 350 pts. YANG ETF eyes breakout. Capital flight hits $3.2B.

China’s stimulus rally is cracking. The $500 billion package announced in early July lit a fire under equities, but the move was short-lived. Hang Seng peaked at 24,867 on July 16. It’s now back at 24,517. That’s a 350-point reversal in under 48 hours. Volume is thinning. Foreign outflows hit $3.2 billion in the first half of July. The yuan is sliding toward 7.31 per USD. That’s the lowest since January. Traders are pulling capital. Sentiment is turning.

YANG is sitting at $29.43, up 1.45% from yesterday’s close. It’s barely above its 52-week low of $28.50. The ETF is designed to deliver 3x inverse exposure to the FTSE China 50 Index. Timing matters. Conviction doesn’t. Volume today is light—just 369,793 shares traded. MACD is flashing a weak buy. RSI is neutral at 45.87. ADX is soft at 18.71. That’s low trend strength. If YANG breaks above $30.00 with volume, the move is real.

The July stimulus package was front-loaded. Infrastructure firms got the bulk. EVs and semiconductors were prioritized. Beijing earmarked 300 billion yuan for consumer subsidies. Trade-in programs and direct support are scheduled for July and October. The central bank cut rates in May. Liquidity injections followed. Export support is active. Rare-earth shipments surged 60% in June. But domestic demand is still weak. Imports only rose 1.1%. Producer prices fell 2.8% year-over-year. That’s deflation. Property values in second-tier cities are down 50%. In third-tier cities, 40%. That’s household wealth destruction.

The CSI 300 Index jumped 25% in a week after the stimulus hit. It’s now retracing. Alibaba and JD.com dropped 6% to 8% last week. The rally was short covering and euphoria. It’s unwinding. The Politburo meets later this month. If they don’t deliver a second wave, markets could roll over hard. Traders are already pricing in disappointment. Hang Seng is flirting with breakdown levels. Watch for rejection near 18,000. That’s your trigger.

If you’re scoping YANG, this is the window. The rally has stalled. A failed bounce or weak Politburo signal could trigger the next leg down. If Hang Seng pops on headlines and fades by close, that’s your entry. If YANG clears $30.00 with rising volume, the move is confirmed.