Costco has quietly built a strong second half of 2025 foundation marked by healthy trends and clouded by possible hurdles. As of July 8, the stock trades near $987, reflecting a climb back toward its February all-time high around $1,075. That 9% gap between current price and recent peak hints at upside if momentum resurfaces, but invites caution if the broader market stalls.
First-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue reached $62.15 billion, up 7.5% year-over-year. Membership count rose to 79.6 million, a gain of nearly 7%, with renewal rates holding steady near 90% globally. Same-store sales improved 5.7%, slightly shy of expectations, but U.S. comp sales rose 6.6% while core categories like groceries and electronics climbed. A cold winter in early 2025 tested resilience, yet Costco held firm across regions including Mexico, Taiwan and Korea. That speaks to the company’s diversified model and sourcing strength through tariffs and supply chain shifts.
Bullish energy flows from its resilient performance under pressure. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, CFRA and Evercore ISI raised estimates and maintained strong calls following Q3 earnings that beat expectations on revenue and earnings per share. The chart shows price carving out a classic cup-with-handle base. Breaking above $1,018 triggered fresh interest from technical traders. Volume climbed alongside price, suggesting accumulation rather than a parabolic spike.
Costco shines in tough times thanks to essential offerings, scale and membership loyalty. UBS highlights its ability to negotiate better deals and absorb tariff pressure, giving it an edge over smaller retailers. Digital sales and membership fee hikes have helped margins. It’s also expanding footprints with a compound annual growth rate of new stores at about 3%, adding 31 locations in 2024.
Yet risks remain. Valuation stands near 56 times forward earnings, a stretched multiple for a retail stock. Rising labor costs, wage pressure, and potential tariff escalation could squeeze margins. Recent earnings missed EPS by a few cents, and competitors BJ’s and Kroger have posted stronger results, suggesting Costco may be pacing the broader sector. Options flow points to caution, with far more call volume than puts, hinting at optimism but also the risk of crowded trades.
Social chatter leans bullish. Stocktwits and Reddit threads have flagged Costco’s name alongside other treasury-like consumer staples. That interest tends to materialize ahead of broader rallies. Technically $1,050 and $1,075 are key resistance levels. A breakout could spark a move to new highs while failure may test support zones near $950 and $900, a 52-week low around $793.
For traders a clean break above $1,018 offers a potential trigger into $1,050. Conservative players might wait for a push beyond $1,075. Downside risk could surface if price falls below $950. Watch volume and read-throughs from tariff news and earnings from peers for context.
Sources
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/COST/costco/stock-price-history
https://www.marketbeat.com/originals/5-reasons-costco-stock-will-hit-new-highs-this-year/
https://www.benzinga.com/insights/analyst-ratings/25/07/46253070/assessing-costco-wholesale-insights-from-14-financial-analysts