Golden cross? Cute. But this ain’t 2009 or 2020. Backtests don’t pay rent, especially in a market this distorted by mega-cap flows, zero breadth, and Fed ambiguity.

📊 $SPY — One more stat to chew on this long weekend:

A golden cross formed in the last week of June.

Over the past 25 years, when this happens, returns are mostly positive 1 month and 3 months out from the signal date.

🟢 Food for thought! 🇺🇸✨ pic.twitter.com/ZQX1DJv5Tb

— optionGeek (@StockShark16) July 6, 2025

You’re talking about a moving average crossover in a market where:

The top 5 stocks drive over 30% of $SPY returns

RSI is overbought (75+)

Seasonality shows weakness mid-July to August

Bond yields aren’t confirming the rally

Hedge funds are already chasing highs, not fading lows

Historical edge? Maybe. But most golden crosses in the past 25 years didn’t happen at all-time highs with AI hype peaking and the VIX under 13. The setup is nothing like the median golden cross scenario.

Also… what happened the last time a golden cross formed near highs? March 2022. Market rolled over right after. Don’t cherry-pick averages, context matters.