Oscar Health is sitting in a strange pocket of the market. The stock trades at $14.93, down 28% from its April highs, and right on top of multi-year support. The valuation is compressed to 0.3x sales, with 42% revenue growth in the rearview and 150% free cash flow growth projected for FY2026. The company is guiding to $2.25 EPS by 2027, without factoring in any government subsidies. That puts the forward multiple under 6x earnings. The market isn’t pricing in the upside. It’s pricing in collapse.
The ACA risk is real. If the Affordable Care Act gets gutted, Oscar loses a chunk of its revenue base. But even in that scenario, they still meet long-term guidance. The next support level sits at $10.70, which lines up with 2022 and 2023 lows. That’s a 40% downside from here. But the upside is 300% to 500% if the multiple rerates and the EPS trajectory holds.
Oscar’s business is AI-native. The tech stack is built in-house. Margin expansion is capped by regulatory drag, but the operating leverage is real. The company is sitting on $2.26B in cash, with zero debt. FCF hit $870M last quarter. The contribution margin is positive. The SG&A ratio is 15.8%. They’ve retrenched from Medicare Advantage and narrowed their footprint to focus on profitable ACA markets. That’s not a pivot. That’s survival.
The $2.25 EPS projection comes straight from the company’s July 2025 investor deck. It’s conservative. If subsidies are extended, the number goes higher. If ICHRA adoption accelerates, it goes higher. If employer contributions shift toward Oscar’s platform, it goes higher. The company is guiding to 20% top-line growth through 2027. That’s not a hope. That’s a slide.
The stock is volatile. It’s hated. It’s been downgraded by UBS, Wells Fargo, and Barclays in the last 30 days. But the numbers are clean. The setup is asymmetric. The risk to reward is in your favor with $OSCR.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice
Sources:
https://m.hioscar.com/press/oscar-health-announces-2025-market-expansion
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/oscr/forecast/
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/OSCR/forecast/
https://longforecast.com/oscr-stock
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/07/46377457/oscr-stock-bulls-bet-on-political-wild-card
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oscar-health-inc-oscr-bull-213027246.html
https://stockstotrade.com/news/oscar-health-inc-oscr-news-2025_07_14/