PG&E Corp. (NYSE: PCG) is trading near $13.40 in mid-July 2025, down nearly 39% from its 52-week high of $21.72. The stock is sitting at a crossroads. Analysts are split. Some see deep value. Others see structural risk. Here’s the full breakdown.
PG&E’s bullish case starts with its capital plan. The company is targeting $63 billion in investment through 2028. That includes 1,100 miles of undergrounding, AI-powered wildfire detection, and 3 GW of new data center capacity. The load growth from data centers alone could add 14,000 GWh to PG&E’s system. That’s not speculative. PG&E has over 120 large-scale data center projects in its pipeline. Six months ago, it had 21.
The 2027–2030 General Rate Case outlines a path to stabilize bills and reduce residential rates in 2026. PG&E expects no further electric rate increases in 2025. Cost recovery charges are set to expire. That could ease pressure on customers and improve sentiment. The company has already cut operating and capital costs by $2.5 billion over three years.
Earnings guidance remains intact. PG&E reaffirmed its full-year EPS range of $1.48 to $1.52. That’s a projected 10% increase over 2024. The company expects 9% annual EPS growth through 2028. Operating income hit $1 billion in Q1. O&M savings topped $500 million in 2023 and $350 million in 2024. Institutional ownership is above 78%. Analysts at BMO and Jefferies have price targets between $21 and $24. That implies 50% upside from current levels.
Now the bearish case. PG&E missed Q1 earnings by $0.01. Revenue came in $40 million short. The company was ordered to repay $43 million in nuclear-related costs in July. Wildfire liability remains a drag. CFRA downgraded the stock to “Sell” in June. Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $18. Moody’s rates PG&E at B-. The debt load exceeds $25 billion. The debt-to-equity ratio is above 2.0. That’s double the industry average.
PG&E is asking the CPUC for another $3.1 billion in funding for energization work. That would bring its total request for 2025–2026 to $6.3 billion. The utility says it needs to complete 19,000 projects annually. It has never done more than 12,000. Project costs are up 38% in six months. External contractors cost nearly three times more than internal labor. Ratepayers are absorbing the risk.
The wildfire fund has a $21 billion reserve, but it doesn’t eliminate exposure. PG&E’s infrastructure is aging. Outages are frequent. The CPUC has imposed a 2030 mandate to modernize 65% of the grid. Fines for noncompliance could exceed $500 million annually. Short interest in PCG rose 22% last quarter. Credit spreads are widening. Bond markets are pricing in default risk.
So is PG&E a buy? If you believe the company can execute its capital plan, avoid major wildfire incidents, and secure favorable regulatory outcomes, the upside is real. The average analyst price target is $20.73. That’s a 54% gain from current levels. But if execution falters, litigation returns, or rate hikes resume, the downside is steep.
PG&E is not a momentum play. It’s a high-beta bet on infrastructure, regulation, and wildfire mitigation. The next earnings report on July 31 will be critical. Watch EPS, cash flow, and CPUC filings. If they miss again, sentiment could crack. If they hit, the rebound could start.
NOTE: This is not financial advice. Please conduct your own due diligence.
Sources:
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/PCG/forecast/
https://www.pge.com/en/regulation/general-rate-case.html
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/pge-corporation-stock-outlook-wall-street-bullish-or-bearish
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pg-e-corporation-pcg-bull-153529626.html
https://www.ainvest.com/news/pg-outages-stress-test-utility-stocks-investor-confidence-2507/