The tariff clock is ticking again. President Trump’s trade team extended the deadline to August 1, but the letters have already gone out. Fourteen countries received formal notice of new import taxes ranging from 25% to 40%. Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam are all on the list. If no deals are signed, the rates hit automatically. No more grace periods. No more soft landings.
The steel and aluminum tariffs doubled in June. Now they sit at 50%. China’s rate is locked at 30% for now, but the administration says it will rise to 55% if talks stall. Vietnam secured a partial deal, dropping its rate from 46% to 20%. The rest are still negotiating. Canada’s talks broke down last month. The EU is scrambling to finalize a framework agreement. India and Japan are holding out. South Korea is racing the clock.
The market has seen this pattern before. Threats, delays, letters, then another delay. But insiders say this round is different. Trump’s team is calling August 1 the final extension. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing to close deals. Steve Bannon says there’s no more TACO. That’s the meme traders use to describe Trump’s habit of backing off: “Trump Always Chickens Out.” This time, they say, he won’t.
The tariffs are not just numbers. They’re leverage. The administration is using them to push countries into defense spending, digital tax rollbacks, and supply chain shifts away from China. The EU dropped its digital services tax. Japan paused trade talks after the US demanded more military funding. Australia is building a critical minerals reserve to strengthen its hand.
If the tariffs hit, the cost of living will rise. Construction, electronics, autos, and food will all feel it. The Peterson Institute estimates tariffs have already added $1,000 per year to the average US household’s expenses. That number will climb. The market knows it. That’s why volatility is creeping back. The CBOE VIX dropped after the last delay. It’s rising again.
Until the tariffs are cancelled or postponed, cash is king. The risk is real. The deadline is near. And the market is watching.
Sources
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/tariff-extension
https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/the-deadline-for-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-is-looming/
https://www.finance-monthly.com/2025/07/trump-tariff-delay-2025/