UVXY has been sliding without brakes. As of July 9 it trades at $18.04, hovering just above its 52 week low of $17.27. The chart looks heavy. Since peaking near $50 back in early April during a brief volatility flare-up, it has given back over 63% and shows no signs of strength. Traders watching for a bottom have been disappointed. The VIX itself has cratered to 11.80, levels not seen since 2019, and UVXY is simply following that tide.
This is not a traditional ETF. UVXY is structured to track short term VIX futures with 1.5 times leverage. That structure resets daily, which means time is not on your side. Contango in VIX futures has stayed wide through summer, eroding UVXY faster than most realize. Over the last month it has dropped 23%. Over three months, it is down more than 52%. Every short term and long term signal points lower. There is no support from the moving averages. Price is below the 5, 20, and 50 day lines. MACD continues to trend bearish.
But volume tells a different story. UVXY is seeing daily volume above 14 million shares. That is not retail noise. Hedge funds are using it either to hedge against sudden VIX spikes or to short the decay. Options flow shows mixed sentiment. Most of it is short dated and directional, targeting short term volatility events. Retail mentions on Reddit and X are picking up slightly. Posts tagged with #UVXY are starting to show up again in volatility threads. Traders are watching this zone but not piling in. So far it is more of a setup than a move.
The technical levels are tight. Support is at $17.61. If that breaks, the next level sits near $16.85. A sustained close below that opens the door to a slow grind into the low $15s. Resistance is near $18.77 and then $21.23. But that range is only tradable if the VIX itself spikes or equities take a sudden dive. Without a macro trigger, UVXY will likely continue to leak lower.
Still, the setup is not dead. If the VIX reacts to Fed comments or an exogenous shock, UVXY can snap fast. It rallied over 40% in one day back in April during the Iran news cycle. That kind of move is rare, but it keeps traders on edge. Some are loading calls quietly, expecting another volatility pop before the end of July. Others are fading the strength and betting it breaks down further. There is no clear consensus in flow or chatter.
At this point UVXY is trading like a coiled spring that has not been wound. A break below $17.60 turns it into a falling knife. A close above $18.77 on volume could trigger a short squeeze. But until then, it remains a tactical play. Not a hold. Not a hedge. Just a tool waiting for fear to return.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice