Apple stock is drifting while the rest of the market climbs. The S&P 500 hit 5,682 this week. Nvidia, Meta, Palantir, Broadcom all surged. But $AAPL is stuck near $212.48. That’s up just 0.62% on the week. The stock trades 4.45% below its 200-day moving average. It’s trailing the index by over 22% year-to-date. This is Apple’s worst stretch since 2013.
The valuation is still rich. Price-to-earnings ratio sits at 33. Earnings per share for the trailing twelve months is $7.09. That’s flat. Revenue for Q1 2025 came in at $95.36 billion. That’s up just 5.1% year-over-year. Greater China revenue dropped 13% to $16.37 billion. iPhone 16 demand is soft. Vision Pro rollout delayed. No major product launches since early 2024.
AI sentiment is breaking down. Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia all pushed new models and integrations. Apple offered no roadmap. No developer kits. No public benchmarks. Investors rotated out. Hedge funds trimmed positions. Retail sentiment flipped. The stock is now 12% below its all-time high from Q2 2024.
The company still holds a $3.17 trillion market cap. But the growth engine is missing. Services revenue is stable. Wearables are flat. Mac and iPad shipments declined. Apple TV+ added content but lost subscribers. The $100 billion buyback plan approved in May hasn’t moved the needle.
Local voices are blunt. A fund manager in Boston said, “Apple’s multiple makes no sense without innovation.” A tech analyst in San Jose said, “They’re behind on AI. That’s the whole game now.” A retail trader in Miami said, “It feels like BlackBerry. Just slower.”
Seasonality offers a sliver of hope. July has historically delivered a 7.3% average gain for Apple. The stock has closed higher in 23 of the past 30 Julys. But that’s history. The current setup is different. No momentum. No catalyst. No breakout.
The forecast range for August 2025 is $208.62 to $219.32. That’s a tight band. JPMorgan raised its target to $250. But the market isn’t buying it. Volume is light. Options flow is neutral. Institutional inflows are flat.
Apple may stay stuck here for 2 to 3 years. That’s not a prediction. That’s what the numbers suggest. No innovation. No growth. Just a premium valuation and a fading narrative.
Sources
https://midforex.com/stocks/aapl-forecast
https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/07/46194043/apple-stock-analysis-july-sp500-seasonality
https://247wallst.com/forecasts/2025/07/04/apple-inc-aapl-price-prediction-and-forecast-2025-2030