CoreWeave is burning cash and losing cushion. The company just pushed out a $1.5 billion senior notes sale due 2031. Not for expansion. Not for new contracts. For survival. The funds will cover existing debt and basic operations. That’s what the paperwork says. The numbers say more.
CoreWeave’s current ratio is 0.44. That means its cash, inventory, and receivables barely cover 44% of short-term liabilities. Anything below 1 signals stress. Below 0.5 is sirens. The company is exposed. The note raise is a bandage. Not a repair.
As of December 2024, total debt stood at $8.7 billion. In Q1 2025 alone, interest expense hit $263.8 million. Operating loss was $27.5 million. CoreWeave dropped $1.4 billion on capex last quarter and plans to spend $20 to $23 billion this year. That exceeds its current revenue pace. This is not a growth play. It is a liquidity crunch in slow motion.
HSBC cut the stock to “Reduce” and slapped on a $32 price target. That’s a 75% plunge from where shares stood Friday. Barclays didn’t downgrade but warned on valuation. Moody’s rated the new bonds B1. Fitch gave them a BB- with RR4 recovery. Both flagged the same landmines: high debt, customer risk, and no margin for error.
Revenue is not diversified. Microsoft made up 72% of Q1 revenue. The rest came from OpenAI and Nvidia. Three names. No safety net. If one pulls back, the model breaks. OpenAI has not sent a significant cash advance despite a $15 billion offtake commitment. That leaves CoreWeave exposed to refinancing risk. If credit markets tighten again, the lights go out.
The stock traded at $128.41 on July 21. That’s down 26% in just 30 days. Volume jumped to 11.19 million shares. RSI is at 42. Options are flashing red: 67% puts, 33% calls. Bearish flow totaled $5.86 million. Smart money is bracing for a hit.
Local voices are watching. Traders in Austin called the current ratio “unsustainable.” Desks in New York are quietly betting that Nvidia’s exposure is mispriced. Chicago analysts are tracking the spread between CoreWeave and NVDA—it’s widening fast. That’s the tell.
This is not just about one overlevered AI player. It’s about ripple effects. Nvidia is the world’s top GPU supplier. CoreWeave is one of its top clients. If CoreWeave goes under, the tremors hit data centers, hyperscalers, and AI labs. The next AI crash won’t start with a blow-up at the top. It will start in the middle.
Watch the bond sale. Watch that 0.44 ratio. Watch Nvidia’s next earnings call. The exposure is already priced in. The unwind isn’t.
Sources
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coreweave-crwv-stock-downgraded-hsbc-142725198.html
https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/07/21/heres-why-coreweave-crwv-is-soaring-today/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coreweave-shares-climb-1-5-165510758.html