EV mania isn’t new. It just looks quieter now because people forgot how loud 2020 and 2021 really were. Rivian hit $150B. NIO touched $100B. Lucid ran to $90B. Plug Power printed $40B. Nikola hit $30B. Fisker got to $8B. Most had zero revenue. That wasn’t a bull market. That was a hallucination.
Fast forward to July 2025. The EV sector is still volatile, but the froth is gone. Valuations are grounded. Fundamentals matter again. The market cap of Rivian is now $18.4B. NIO trades at $12.7B. Lucid sits at $9.3B. Plug Power is under $3B. Nikola is sub-$1B. Fisker is delisted. The air came out. What’s left is a sector that’s finally pricing risk.
The survivors have real revenue. Rivian posted $1.2B in Q2 2025, up 38% year-over-year. NIO delivered 32,000 vehicles in June alone. Lucid’s Gravity SUV is selling better than expected, with 14,000 preorders logged in the last 60 days. Plug Power signed a $1.1B hydrogen supply deal with SK Group. Nikola’s fuel cell trucks are now running in California ports. The sector is leaner. The cash burn is lower. The debt loads are manageable. The subsidies are still flowing, at least through Q3.
The multiples are still rich. Rivian trades at 6.2x sales. Lucid is at 7.8x. NIO’s margins are thin. Plug Power is still unprofitable. Nikola faces delisting risk again. The EV tax credit expires September 30. That’s going to hit demand. China’s slowdown is real. Europe’s tariffs are tightening. The U.S. grid isn’t ready for mass electrification. And the bond market is flashing recession.
The euphoric phase is over. What’s left is a sector that could 2x or 3x if execution holds. Or collapse another 40% if rates spike and subsidies vanish. The risk to reward is finally visible. That wasn’t true in 2021. It is now.
Sources:
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rivn/
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nio/
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/lcid/
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/plug/
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nkla/
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1720990/000172099024000045/rivn-20240630.htm
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/nio-june-deliveries-2025-07-01/
https://www.lucidmotors.com/media-room/lucid-gravity-preorders-july-2025/
https://www.plugpower.com/news/plug-power-sk-group-hydrogen-deal-july-2025/
https://www.nikola.com/press-releases/nikola-fuel-cell-trucks-port-deployment-july-2025/