Nebius Group is no longer just a footnote in the AI infrastructure race. The company posted a 385% year-over-year revenue jump in Q1 2025, reaching $55.3 million. That’s not a typo. Their annualized run-rate revenue hit $310 million in April, up from $249 million just weeks earlier. The CEO, Arkady Volozh, says they’re on track for $750 million to $1 billion ARR by December. That’s not a forecast. That’s a target backed by hard expansion and real contracts.
The company’s footprint has gone from a single data center in Finland to five locations across Europe, the Middle East, and the United States. Israel and Iceland are now online. CapEx for 2025 was revised upward to $2 billion, with $544 million already spent in Q1. They’re deploying over 100 megawatts of compute capacity this year and have a pipeline that could exceed 1 gigawatt. That’s not marketing fluff. That’s infrastructure.
Nvidia didn’t just invest. They made Nebius one of five Cloud Partners for the Blackwell Ultra AI Factory. That means early access to GB200 chips and DGX Cloud Lepton integration. Nebius is now ranked in SemiAnalysis’s GPU Cloud ClusterMAX system. That’s industry validation, not PR.
The bullish case is built on vertical integration. Nebius isn’t chasing general-purpose cloud. They’re building AI-specific infrastructure with full-stack control. Their customer base includes hundreds of managed and self-service clients across tech, media, and life sciences. April’s ARR was $310 million. They expect positive EBITDA in the second half of 2025. That’s not hope. That’s trajectory.
The bearish case isn’t imaginary. Adjusted EBITDA was still negative in Q1, at minus $62.6 million. Net loss from continuing operations was $113.6 million. Gross profit margin sits at 44.93%, down from 52.89% three-year average. Net profit margin is a brutal -254.49%. ROE dropped to -13.88%. These aren’t rounding errors. These are real risks.
Valuation metrics are split. PEG ratio is 0.30, debt/equity is zero, and current ratio is 17.9. That’s top-tier. But EV/Sales is 54 and price-to-sales is 62.39. Free cash flow yield is 0%. Earnings yield is -4.08%. That’s bottom-tier. The stock closed at $44.30 on July 11, with a consensus price target of $66.50. That’s a 50.11% upside if the bulls are right.
Technical indicators are mixed. RSI is 45.1, MACD is below the signal line, and STOCHRSI is flat. The 50-day moving average is $45.9, above the 200-day at $34.1. That’s a golden cross. Momentum is bullish. But ROC is -2.9 and CCI is -154.5. That’s bearish momentum. The stock is neither overbought nor oversold. It’s in limbo.
Institutional ownership doubled in three months. That’s not noise. That’s positioning. Nebius holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, valued near $6 billion. They also own Toloka and Avride. These are non-core assets earmarked for future monetization. Toloka will be deconsolidated in Q2 due to loss of voting control. That’s a shift in reporting, not a collapse.
The company’s AI cloud stack now includes MLflow, JupyterLab, Slurm-based cluster upgrades, and enhanced object storage. They’ve partnered with DDN, VAST, and WEKA for storage. That’s not patchwork. That’s architecture.
So should you load up on NBIS? The bullish case is built on infrastructure, partnerships, and velocity. The bearish case is grounded in profitability metrics and valuation strain. The fundamentals are real. The risks are visible. The upside is tangible. The downside is measurable.
Choose your side.
Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nebius-group-n-v-nbis-125244479.html
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NBIS/forecast