Nvidia just got its green light. After months of export restrictions, the company confirmed it will resume H20 GPU sales to China. The U.S. government assured Nvidia that licenses will be granted. CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump last week to lock it in. The chips are tailored to meet compliance rules. Deliveries are expected to begin within weeks. That’s a revenue engine coming back online.
China accounted for $17 billion of Nvidia’s revenue last fiscal year. That’s 13% of total sales. The H20 ban in April forced Nvidia to write off $5.5 billion in inventory and walk away from $15 billion in orders. That’s now reversing. Analysts estimate the resumed shipments could restore $15 billion to $20 billion in revenue this year. Nvidia also unveiled a new RTX PRO GPU designed for smart factories and logistics. It’s fully compliant and aimed at China’s industrial AI sector.
Alibaba is back in play. The company’s Moonshot division just released a new Kimi AI model that outperforms ChatGPT and Claude in coding benchmarks. It’s cheaper and faster. ByteDance and Tencent are already submitting applications to buy Nvidia’s chips. Alibaba is expected to follow. The AI stack in China is rebuilding. Nvidia’s CUDA platform remains dominant. Domestic alternatives like Huawei are improving, but they’re not there yet.
Bullish case:
- $15 billion to $20 billion in restored revenue from China
- Reversal of $5.5 billion impairment charge
- RTX PRO GPU opens new verticals in logistics and manufacturing
- China’s AI market remains dependent on Nvidia’s architecture
- U.S. backing removes export risk for now
- Alibaba’s Kimi model signals renewed demand for high-end compute
Bearish case:
- China may accelerate domestic chip development to reduce reliance
- U.S. export policy could shift again post-election
- Nvidia’s margins may compress if RTX PRO is priced below H20
The trade thaw is real. The chips are moving. The AI race is back on.
Sources
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-resume-h20-ai-chip-064336947.html
https://www.fastcompany.com/91368241/nvidia-set-resume-sales-ai-chips-china-whos-whitelist-buyers