Oscar Health stock just got dragged through the floor. On July 24, 2025, $OSCR dropped 9.6% intraday, closing at $14.35 after opening at $15.75. Volume exploded to 35.3 million shares, nearly matching its 39.7 million average. The selloff wasn’t random. It was the fifth straight red day, and it followed a string of analyst downgrades, guidance suspensions, and sector-wide ACA jitters.
The trigger came from Centene and UnitedHealth. Both pulled their 2025 guidance citing rising medical costs and exchange volatility. Oscar relies on ACA markets for 90% of its premium revenue. That exposure is now a liability. Wells Fargo cut its price target to $10 and slapped an underweight rating. UBS followed with a sell. Barclays initiated coverage with a $17 target but warned about subsidy expiration risks. The Congressional Budget Office projects 7.4 million enrollees could vanish by 2030 if enhanced ACA subsidies expire this December.
Oscar’s Q1 looked strong on paper. Revenue hit $3.05 billion, up 42% year-over-year. EPS came in at $0.92. But the forward guidance is shaky. FY25 revenue is projected between $12 billion and $12.2 billion. Operational losses are expected between $200 million and $300 million. Q2 net loss is estimated at $228 million. EBIT margin is negative. P/E ratio is 59.4. That’s not sustainable.
The company holds $3 billion in cash. Free cash flow is positive. AI-driven care routing and virtual urgent care are in play. But the market isn’t buying it. Institutional ownership dropped. Insider selling picked up in June. The stock is down 43% from its July 1 high of $22.09. It’s down 56% from its 2021 IPO price of $17. It’s trading 39.7% below its 52-week high of $23.79.
Options traders are circling. A 14.50–15.50 bull call spread expiring July 25 is in play. Historical demand structure shows a 66.7% chance of upside after a 4–6–U sequence. But that’s technical. The fundamentals are still bleeding.
Sources:
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/07/46377457/oscr-stock-bulls-bet-on-political-wild-card
https://stockstotrade.com/news/oscar-health-inc-oscr-news-2025_07_23/