Dave Portnoy just went long Tesla with $10 million, betting on a 10 % rebound in two weeks. That kind of conviction turns heads. But is the setup actually lining up, or is it just another high-profile gamble?
Tesla stock closed around $293.94 on July 8, falling about 7 % following its Q2 2025 delivery numbers. The company posted 384,122 global deliveries, down from 443,956 a year ago. That marks two straight quarters of declining deliveries, even though production remained strong at 410,244 units. The big surprise came out of China, where Tesla pushed out 71,599 vehicles from its Shanghai plant in June, a rare month of growth in an otherwise cooling market.
DAVE PORTNOY BUYS $10M OF $TSLA BETTING ON 10% BOUNCE IN TWO WEEKSpic.twitter.com/7vPjYAVQP2
— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) July 7, 2025
The selloff wasn’t just about missed deliveries. Traders are also positioning around Tesla’s Q2 earnings report, expected July 23, with options activity flashing a mixed setup. There’s a pocket of buyers eyeing a reversal, especially if earnings commentary offers any upbeat guidance.
Right now, $285 to $290 is holding as near-term support. A clean break back above $320 could open the door for a move toward $360, but if earnings disappoint or Elon’s political headlines drag sentiment, then $250 becomes a critical level to watch.
Retail chatter is elevated on X and Reddit. The mood is split. Some are calling for a dead cat bounce, others are stacking call options expecting short-term upside. The delivery slump hit sentiment, but bulls argue it’s already priced in, and China’s uptick could stabilize Q3 numbers.
Tesla still holds serious long-term cards. It dominates EV infrastructure, leads battery storage, and is chasing the AI robotaxi narrative. But markets don’t care about five-year visions during a near-term deceleration. And with Musk launching the America Party and becoming the loudest man in politics, headlines matter more than ever.
Portnoy’s $10 million bet is gutsy. Technically, the setup isn’t horrible. Sentiment is washed out. Volume surged. China showed a heartbeat. If the bounce happens, it’ll be fueled by guidance, not deliveries. But timing is everything. One more ugly headline or CPI shock before earnings, and that bounce could be dead before it starts.
This is where discipline matters. The upside is real, but the downside has teeth.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice