Rocket Lab is flying high. Too high? That’s the question. The stock trades at $45.88 today. Market cap sits at $24.6 billion. Revenue for the last twelve months was $466 million. That’s a price-to-sales ratio of 55.1. No other space firm with sub-$500 million revenue trades anywhere near that level.
The company’s Electron rocket has launched 68 times. Success rate sits at 98%. That’s real. The Neutron rocket is next. First flight expected late 2025. Reusability is the pitch. Ocean landing platform already named. “Return On Investment.” That’s not a joke. That’s the actual name.
Rocket Lab landed a contract with the European Space Agency in June. Two satellites. Launch window confirmed. That deal helped push the stock up 33.5% in June. July added another 8.2%. Citi raised its price target to $50. Bank of America followed. KeyBanc went to $40. All three firms cited Neutron and vertical integration as the drivers.
But the numbers don’t match the hype. Net income for the last year was negative $206.5 million. Operating margin sits at negative 44.2%. Free cash flow is negative $177.1 million. Debt is $489.7 million. Cash is $428.4 million. Net cash position is just $22.6 million. That’s $0.05 per share.
Gross margin is 27.3%. Return on equity is negative 45.4%. Return on invested capital is negative 13.7%. No dividend. No buyback. No earnings. Just momentum.
The company added 3% more shares this year. Insider ownership is 0.74%. Institutions hold 47.5%. Short interest is 11.3% of float. That’s 54.4 million shares. Beta is 2.16. Volatility is real.
Rocket Lab’s valuation assumes billions in future contracts. US government. European Union. Commercial constellations. All priced in. Neutron success priced in. Constellation business model priced in. If any piece slips, the stock breaks.
Local voices are cautious. New Zealand aerospace analysts flagged the valuation gap last week. California launch site regulators say Rocket Lab’s expansion plans are “aggressive.” No delays yet. But no margin for error either.
The company’s forecast shows 39.4% revenue growth over five years. That’s strong. But not enough to justify 55× sales. Analyst consensus price target is $32.42. That’s 36.9% below current price.
Valuation is an art. But the math is public. Rocket Lab may deliver. But the stock already assumes it did.
Sources:
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rklb/statistics/
https://longforecast.com/rklb-stock
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/07/21/why-rocket-lab-stock-skyrocketed-this-week/
https://www.timothysykes.com/news/rocket-lab-corporation-rklb-news-2025_07_17/
https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/07/18/up-800-in-one-year-is-rocket-lab-a-100-stock/