UnitedHealth Group is sitting in plain sight, and the numbers are not hiding. The stock trades at 12.8 times earnings. Return on equity is 24%. That’s not a fluke. That’s a valuation mismatch. The company posted $410 billion in revenue over the last twelve months. Net income hit $22.1 billion. Earnings per share came in at $23.82. The market cap is $283 billion. That’s textbook value territory for a company with this scale and profitability.
The technicals are holding. Price bounced off $315 support on July 1 and closed at $326.14. RSI is 67. MACD is positive. Volume is light, but directional momentum is building. The 50-day moving average sits at $337.01. The 200-day is way up at $493.03. That gap is wide. But the chart shows consolidation, not collapse. Support levels are stacked at $315.89, $305.83, and $300.57. Resistance sits near $331.39 and $346.80. The setup is clean.
$UNH don't overthink it.
Sometimes it is that obvious. pic.twitter.com/sxxfk1A2X4
— The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) July 1, 2025
Fundamentals are stronger than the chart. Gross margin is 21.99%. Operating margin is 8.16%. Free cash flow margin is 6.06%. The company generated $24.86 billion in free cash flow over the last year. That’s $27.41 per share. Dividend yield is 2.83%. Payout ratio is 35.72%. The company has raised its dividend for 15 straight years. Buyback yield is 0.51%. Shareholder yield is 3.34%.
Debt sits at $81.27 billion. Cash is $34.29 billion. Net cash position is negative, but interest coverage is 8.25. The company is not overleveraged. Book value per share is $104.44. Price-to-book is 2.99. Price-to-sales is 0.70. Forward PE is 13.92. PEG ratio is 2.34.
The stock dropped 40% year-to-date. That’s a reset. Not a breakdown. The earnings miss in Q1 was real. But trailing twelve-month EPS is still $24.07. That’s up 551% year-over-year. The company reports Q2 earnings on July 29. Analysts expect $4.91 EPS and $111.75 billion in revenue. That’s a 13.04% revenue jump. The earnings dip is temporary. The revenue engine is intact.
Return on invested capital is 11.72%. Return on assets is 7.04%. Asset turnover is 1.38. These are operational metrics. They show throughput. Not fluff. The company serves 50.1 million medical members. OptumRx generated $133.2 billion in revenue last year. Medicare Advantage plans brought in $137 billion. Medicaid covers 8.7 million lives. These are scale numbers. They don’t shrink overnight.
The DOJ probe shifted focus to OptumRx. That’s a pharmacy unit. Not the core insurance engine. The Big Beautiful Bill removed the Medicaid tax restriction. That stabilizes state reimbursements. The political risk is fading. The valuation is still compressed. The fundamentals are still strong. The technicals are still holding. That’s the setup.
Sources
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/unh/statistics/
https://fullratio.com/stocks/nyse-unh/earnings
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/07/02/unitedhealth-buy-or-sell-unh-stock-at-325/